Today, coffee is grown in more than 70 tropical countries globally and enjoyed all over the world as a caffeinated beverage. It’s also the second most traded global commodity after oil, making it our planet’s most valuable agricultural product in the realm of commercial agriculture (followed by cocoa and soybeans).

And how much of it do we drink?

According to estimates, humans collectively drink around 2.3 billion cups of coffee daily. The average American drinks three cups of Joe per day.

That said, if we don’t act to mitigate climate change, your morning brew may be under serious threat…

Top 5 coffee-producing countries and climate change

Coffee is produced almost exclusively in developing nations. It’s estimated that there are currently between 20 and 25 million small-scale farmers and laborers involved in cultivating coffee beans for commercial agriculture, primarily for export purposes.

Increased temperatures from climate change, therefore, means the livelihood of millions of coffee producers is under threat. Think of it this way: While coffee itself isn’t a food crop, the income it generates for these small-scale farmers the world over helps them feed their families. If coffee goes, so does their food security and income.

The world’s largest coffee-producing nations are all located in the so-called, (largely equatorial), “Bean Belt” that lies between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.

In order of exported metric ton, they rank as follows:

  1. Brazil

  2. Vietnam

  3. Colombia

  4. Indonesia

  5. Ethiopia

Top climate change threats faced by coffee farmers

Coffee is a highly sensitive crop. It demands very specific growing conditions, and just the right balance of sunshine and rainfall to yield well-balanced, flavorful beans. Coffee crops respond dramatically to the smallest weather variations. That’s why global warming is such a huge issue for the coffee industry. It threatens growing conditions in multiple regions and is a major current concern for both coffee producers and consumers worldwide.

Top dangers for coffee production include:

  1. Droughts (overlong dry spells)
  2. Flooding (torrential rains)
  3. Pests and fungi/plant diseases: warmer temperatures create a favorable habitat for microbes and insects that attack the coffee plant and fruit. (Yes, coffee is technically a fruit! The beans we roast are the pits of this fruit. Coffee fruit looks a lot like cherries and is often referred to as ‘coffee cherries.’)

Coffee consumers affected: higher prices, lower quality coffee beans

  • When it comes to coffee consumers, lower coffee bean yields will mean you’ll pay a lot more for each cup we drink as the beans become fewer and less readily available.
  • The quality of the surviving Arabica and Robusta beans may also worsen due to climate devastation and hence your coffee will also potentially taste worse.
  • In addition, many variants may go extinct, meaning there’s a far smaller range of coffees to choose from.

Coffee connoisseurs may be prepared to pay premium prices for a premium product, but for the man or woman on the street, good coffee could become a rarity in a few decades from now -- unless we act quickly and encourage sustainable agriculture.

Can we save the coffee industry from the impact of climate change?

Researchers from the Earth Institute’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) believe that boosting the climate resilience of smallholder coffee production around the world through education, and the use and application of technological research tools that map climate change may help turn the tide in favor of sustainable agriculture. Whether we will ultimately succeed in saving the coffee industry as we know (or not), remains unknown.

Read more on the IRI’s initiatives in conjunction with Fairtrade here.