A different future for mass transport after Covid. Can the transit industry evolve?

While a lot of us are celebrating the new era of remote working - which is bound to remain long after the pandemic ends - it’s not exactly good news for mass transit.

“Transit ridership had been falling for years before the pandemic shut down much of the U.S. economy last spring, and it's likely that the virus will only accelerate some of the trends behind that decline. Those include hastening the migration of jobs and people away from dense cities, where transit works best, as well as a newfound enthusiasm for letting employees work from home.”

Next to this, office space vacancies are at almost 15% and prices of commercial real estate have dropped by 8% when compared with pre-pandemic figures. Not only that, but with greater work flexibility, people are preferring to buy homes in suburbs and smaller towns, rather than the intercity—as a result, sales in these areas have increased to 85% of total home sales, a 5% overall increase to pre-pandemic values. We should keep in mind that we are still in the midst of things, and numbers are likely to increase even further as people have the opportunity to relocate with greater ease. These trends indicate that employees are likely to continue working from home, at least part time, for the considerable future.

While transit industry leaders are seeking short-term aid from the new Biden administration, they’re also looking how to restructure the transit system in the long term, to meet the new living and working conditions of the American people. With workers commuting less frequently, rush hour times will become more fluid, and the number of fares offered will decrease. While many will no doubt continue to work from home after the pandemic ceases, a working transit system will still be necessary for those needing to commute for work-- this will also ensure a speedy economic recovery.

Prior to the pandemic, commuters often took public transport to avoid heavy traffic and expensive or limited inter-city parking. With less people commuting into cities now and for the foreseeable future, these aspects could no longer be reason enough to favor mass transit. Not only that, but people are less than eager to enter small, crowded trams and buses for risk of contracting the virus, and these health concerns will likely continue even after the pandemic ends. To put things in perspective, as of the third quarter of 2020, there was a 62% drop in the amount of people riding public transport, compared with pre-pandemic figures.

A Massive impact on mass transport

Scott Bogren, executive director of the Community Transportation Association of America, isn’t optimistic: “Even a 5 percent decrease in commuters in a major metropolitan area is going to have massive impact. That tends to be, from what I’m reading from economists, on the low side of what they expect to be ‘permanent.'"

There’s no doubt the future of mass transport will be very different than it has been historically. That doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing though—while intercity transport will decrease, with more people relocating to suburbs and small cities, this could lead to a need for a new mode of travel between smaller towns and suburbs, which could create new opportunities for the transport system.

Read the full article here.

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